Speaking of Armadillo’s John Carmack, in his team’s latest update, he provides his own unvarnished assessment of the various companies in the suborbital spaceflight sector. The Scaled Composites/Virgin Galactic partnership “is the safest bet for success”, but cautions that Virgin may need the field to itself in order to make a profit on SpaceShipTwo: “If a more highly operable vehicle is competing, SS2 probably won’t ‘earn out’.”

Some other summarized assessments:

• Blue Origin: “It looks like they want to play in the orbital space, and perhaps don’t want to get bogged down competing in suborbital space. I think that is a mistake.”
• Rocketplane Global: “They have burned through tens of millions of dollars of funding, and nothing has ever left the ground. Would another ten or twenty million dollars do it? I doubt it very much.”
• SpaceDev: “I also think the hybrid powered VTHL DreamChaser is about the worst design for commercial suborbital flights. They aren’t going to build it on their own dime, and it looks like it would be a very expensive development project that would end up with quite high operating costs if it was ever completed.”
• XCOR: “I think they can probably do it” with Lynx.
• Astrium: “Oh, please.”

And his own assessment? “I still think there is a chance we might be first, depending on how Scaled chooses to play things.”

[Yup, still at the airport]

To follow up on a posting from during the Space Access ’08 conference, I have an article in this week’s issue of The Space Review examining what it will take to become a “rocket pilot”, and just how interesting an occupation that will be. As many of the speakers noted, there’s little to go on in terms of official guidance or experience in training for flying rocket-powered suborbital or orbital vehicles, so people are building up their flying credentials, gaining experience and certifications in various aircraft.

I also expand in the article John Carmack’s thoughts about how flying these vehicles will be relatively routine and even mundane, rather than glamorous. There will be interesting flying opportunities for those involved in test flights or even rocket racing, but regular commercial flights will be largely automated, so that the experience will be akin to that of an elevator operator. “[O]nce it gets to the point of lots and lots of people flying on these things—elevator,” he said at one point in the panel.

[Catching up on news items while waiting on a delayed flight]

An AP article last week reported that New Mexico governor Bill Richardson and spaceport authority executive director Steve Landeene made the rounds in Washington looking for additional federal support for Spaceport America. They met with, among others, NASA administrator Mike Griffin, who said he could not formally endorse the spaceport but “was crystal clear in his support for commercial space facilities,” according to Richardson. The two also met with Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN), chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee, but not with FAA officials.

If the purpose of the trip was to win funding for the spaceport, the trip wasn’t an immediate success. Still, the trip won the support of the Las Cruces Sun-News which, in an editorial, congratulated the governor for his efforts in support of the spaceport. “Richardson is good at telling our story,” the paper argues. “His recent national attention as a presidential candidate probably helps him open more doors in Washington – except maybe Hillary Clinton’s Senate office.” The editorial also points out the trip comes just a couple of weeks before a spaceport tax referendum in Sierra County, similar to the one passed in Doña Ana County last year.