An article on the web site of Technology Review magazine argues that 2006 will see “an unprecedented number of private launches”. As evidence, the article cites the inaugural launch of the Falcon 1, the pending launch of the first Genesis inflatable module prototype by Bigelow Aerospace (now planned for Wednesday, according to the Roskosmos web site), and the flights planned at the X Prize Cup in October. The article concludes that “this may be a record year for liftoffs by independent rocket-powered vehicles”. [Disclosure: I previously worked for Technology Review.]
It appears difficult to reconcile this statement with actual launch activity. There have only been about 30 orbital launch attempts so far this year, on track for about 60 for all of 2006, similar to the depressed level of activity seen in the worldwide launch industry for most of this decade. The total number of commercial orbital launches in 2006 is likely to be no more than about 20, again similar to the low levels of recent years. The “record year” statement might be based on the assumption of a high level of activity at the X Prize Cup, with two or more teams competing in the Lunar Lander Challenge, but those are all low-level flights; if we count those, should we also count all the model rocketry launches, each of which counts as an “independent rocket-powered vehicle”? There are a lot of encouraging signs on the horizon, but it seems a bit premature to call 2006 a “watershed year” for commercial spaceflight. Let’s see what actually flies, and how well, first.
My wife and I have been trying to make sense of the X-Cup brochure to determine what, if anything, will actually fly? Can you shed any light on that topic?
I understand there will be a Lunar Landing competition, but as you say, it is a pretty low-altitude flight, and the main point is landing. Will anything fly into suborbital area and / or in orbit?
Gene,
No, there will be no suborbital or orbital launches occuring at the X Prize Cup this year; there aren’t really any vehicles available to perform such flights, and Las Cruces International Airport isn’t a spaceport. The Lunar Lander Challenge launches will all be low-level flights, but should still be interesting: you’ll see vehicles take off, hover, move sideways, and land, all under rocket power. (Well, hopefully they’ll do all that.)
Unfortunately the X Prize folks have falled behind schedule in promoting the event: the web site for the Cup says that their new site will launch “in early June”, over a month ago.
We’ll still go: from the brochure the event sounds very promising. Do you have any expectations of suborbital / orbital flights occuring in the next year or two?
Thanks for the information.